Vietnam September 2025 Outlook – GDP Surges, FTSE Upgrade Boosts Market Confidence

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for September 2025.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in September 2025

Vietnam’s Update – Economy

• Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.2% in Q3/2025, surpassing our expectation on the back of stronger industrial activity (+9.5% y/y). Both manufacturing and construction posted robust growth, supported by improved new orders and a 27.9% y/y surge in State investment. The strong industrial momentum also bolstered service sector growth (+8.6% y/y), with trade and transportation among the key beneficiaries. Meanwhile, a steady rise in international tourist arrivals provided additional support to overall services performance. Overall, GDP grew 7.8% y/y in 9M/2025, placing Vietnam among the fastest-growing economies globally.
• Retail sales rose 9.5% y/y in 9M/2025, supported by strong international tourism and event-driven spending. Vietnam welcomed 15.4 million foreign visitors, up 21.5% y/y, which boosted revenues from accommodation, dining, and travel services. In addition, large-scale activities surrounding National Day celebrations, followed by a long public holiday, further stimulated consumer spending in major cities, providing an extra lift to overall consumption.
• Inflation edged up slightly to 3.4%. The key drivers of price gains remained largely consistent with previous months, led by higher construction material costs amid tight supply and strong infrastructure demand, rising rental prices as students returned to school, and increased household electricity usage. Eating-out expenses also climbed as small businesses passed on part of the additional costs incurred under stricter regulations effective from July 1. Meanwhile, domestic fuel prices, which had previously helped offset inflationary pressures, rose 1.5%, reducing their moderating effect on overall inflation.
• Vietnam’s manufacturing sector continued to expand modestly in September, with the PMI remaining stable at 50.4. Output and new orders improved, while new export orders declined at the slowest pace in nearly a year. Although external demand has yet to fully recover, the recent stability in U.S. tariff policies has enabled some exporters to secure new overseas contracts. Trade activity remained robust, with exports up 16.0% y/y and imports up 18.8% y/y in 9M/2025. Notably, exports to China surged following the U.S. tariff implementation, led by computers and electronic components—a development that warrants further monitoring. The trade surplus remained healthy at USD 16.8 billion
• FDI disbursements totaled USD 15.8 billion (+8.5% y/y) in 9M/2025. With tariff-related uncertainties easing, FDI inflows are expected to remain resilient, underpinned by a strong pipeline of new projects. Toyota Vietnam announced plans to invest over USD 360 million in hybrid car production lines and factory upgrades, while Aeon Japan aims to triple its retail footprint in Vietnam by 2030. Our discussions with industrial park developers suggest that, to mitigate risks from the proposed 40% “transshipment” tariff under the Trump administration, foreign manufacturers are looking to increase localization rates by shifting more production to Vietnam—a trend that could further strengthen the country’s position in global supply chains.
• The USD/VND held broadly stable in September, but the unofficial market showed more movement. The unofficial rate climbed about 1% in the first half of the month before easing to finish 0.5% lower by month-end, coinciding with Vietnam’s approval of a pilot program to regulate digital assets. At the same time, reforms in the gold market have shown progress, with the gap between global and local gold prices narrowing from nearly 20% earlier this year to around 12%. Since a large part of errors and omissions in the balance of payment (BoP) has stemmed from gold smuggling and unregulated digital asset trading, these measures are expected to improve transparency and support greater long-term stability for the Vietnamese dong. Some early signs of policy effectiveness was observed in the Q2/2025 BoP released few weeks ago when it turned to positive the first time in the last 5 quarters

Vietnam’s Update – Stock Market

• After a strong rally since May, the VnIndex saw a mild correction in September. The benchmark slipped 1.3% as investors locked in gains and shifted into a “wait-and-see” stance ahead of the official FTSE market classification review. A similar approach was seen among foreign investors, who recorded net selling value of $1 billion during the month, mainly trimming positions in stocks that had rallied sharply, including Vingroup-related names, banks, and securities firms.
• Real Estate (+15.1%) continued to be the top-performing sector solely thanks to Vingroup (VIC). The company announced the groundbreaking of an LNG thermal power plant with a total investment amount of $6.7 billion, though financing sources and operational expertise are unclear. Valuation of the stock is also steep in our view, with 2025F P/E of 47.1x. On the other hand, Financials sector (-6.1%) was the main laggard due to profit taking pressure on both banking and securities stocks. Information Technology fell 7.5%, with FPT under pressure on negative sentiment surrounding the U.S’ H1B visa fees increase. However, FPT’s staff under H1B are only 6% of its headcount in the U.S and 0.2% of total headcount in FPT Software,
  posing minimal impact on FPT overall. Additionally, FPT is poised for further earnings recovery as signed contracts reaccelerating on the back of several large deals, totaling over $380mn, as well as benefiting from Vietnam’s ambitious data centers development plan. Meanwhile, persistent foreign selling year-to-date has lowered foreign ownership to 36.7%, helping it to be included in major foreign investible indices.
• Vietnam is accelerating capital market reforms. Recent regulations have lowered barriers for foreign investors such as removal of consular legalization of foreign documents and clearer tax reporting procedures, while strengthening transparency with shorter IPO listing deadlines, mandatory bond credit ratings. Companies can no longer cap foreign ownership below the legal ceiling, partially addressing a key obstacle flagged by MSCI. These reforms mark a decisive shift from promises to execution, reinforcing confidence for international investors.
• FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status on 7 October. We expect total inflow to Vietnam stock market is over $3 billion. Passive inflows from ETFs are likely to materialize within 12 months following the reclassification, while active funds may position earlier. Although a large share of passive allocations will concentrate on index heavyweights, we expect active investors to increasingly target companies with robust fundamentals and attractive valuations.
• We see opportunities in the overlooked ones. The VN-Index is trading at 2025F P/E of 13.9x (source: Bloomberg), which is a moderate level comparing with other regional markets such as Thailand (14.2x) and Malaysia (14.8x). However, the year-to-date performance has been driven mainly by banks and the Vingroup ecosystem, while other sectors, including consumer staples, materials, and healthcare, have been overlooked. This presents opportunities for investors to increase positions to stocks that are still undemanding on strong fundamentals. The earnings outlook of the market is strong, with 2025 forecasted EPS growth for the top 100 stocks at 12.8%

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Please download the September 2025 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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