Vietnam August 2025 Outlook: Stock Market Surges, Economy Holds Firm

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for August 2025.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in August 2025

Vietnam’s Update – Economy

• Vietnam marked the 80th anniversary of National Day with a formal parade and a powerful address by the General Secretary, underscoring the nation’s extraordinary progress. Since 2000, GDP has expanded twelvefold, reflecting both rapid development and resilience. This transformation has created a solid foundation for future ambitions, including the vision of achieving high-income status by 2045. The call to build “a powerful, prosperous, and happy nation” was framed not only as a collective aspiration but also as a solemn oath before History and the Nation.
• Retail sales expanded 9.4% y/y in 8M/2025, buoyed by a robust rebound in international tourism and event-related spending. Vietnam welcomed 13.9 million foreign visitors during this period, up 21.7% y/y, lifting revenues from accommodation, dining, and travel services. Large-scale activities linked to preparations for the National Day celebrations also stimulated spending in major cities, providing an additional boost to consumption.
• Inflation stayed flat vs. July at 3.2%. Price gains were driven by higher construction material costs amid tight supply and strong infrastructure demand, higher rental prices as students are about to go back to schools, as well as increased household electricity consumption during peak summer heat. Eating-out costs also rose as small businesses complied with stricter regulations from July 1, passing part of the additional expense to consumers. These pressures were partly offset by lower domestic fuel prices and promotional discounts on new vehicles, easing overall inflationary momentum.
• FDI disbursements reached US$15.4 billion (+8.8% y/y), with 81.6% directed to manufacturing. With tariff-related uncertainty easing, FDI inflows are expected to remain strong, supported by a robust project pipeline. August also saw the formal adoption of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), applying a 15% effective minimum rate to large multinational enterprises who have consolidated revenues of at least $800 million in the last two fiscal years. To preserve competitiveness, Vietnam had previously set up an investment support fund to reimburse qualifying FDI firms, and further measures are expected. On the diplomatic front, ties with South Korea were deepened through a bilateral summit, while relations with Egypt were elevated to a comprehensive partnership.
• August marked the first month of U.S.’s 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI moderated to 50.4 from 52.4 in July but though remain above 50 same as other countries in ASEAN. This indicates that manufacturing in Vietnam, and across ASEAN, stay resilient despite external uncertainties. Nevertheless, lower new orders started to have some impact as we witnessed a deceleration in export growth in August, though it still increased by 14.5% y/y. Growth of imports remain steady at 17.7% y/y in which there is a jump in agricultural products, which potentially the results from the trade agreement between U.S. and Vietnam. Cumulatively, exports and imports rose 14.8% y/y and 17.9% y/y in the first eight
  months, resulting in a US$14.0 billion trade surplus.
• Infrastructure investment continues to be a key highlight. A total of 89 projects were inaugurated during the month, spanning both state-led and private initiatives. Among the highlights were the National Exhibition Center in Hanoi and the Nghe An Oncology Hospital. Fiscal conditions also remain favorable, with the Ministry of Finance reporting public debt at just 34% of GDP, far below regional averages. This low debt burden, combined with the government’s commitment to encouraging private sector participation, provides strong momentum for ongoing infrastructure expansion.
• The Vietnamese Dong depreciated 0.5% against the USD in August and 3.7% YTD. Pressures stemmed from the low-interest-rate environment aimed at supporting growth and unrecorded capital outflows linked to gold smuggling, driven by a 17% gap between international and domestic gold prices. Looking ahead, the Dong is expected to stabilize as deposit rates adjust upward, following credit growth exceeding 10% YTD while deposits expanded at only half that pace. In parallel, the government’s aggressive measures in the gold market, including ending the state monopoly on gold bar production and tightening inspections, should help ease foreign exchange pressures. Finally, anticipated Fed rate cuts in September are likely to
  provide additional support for the currency

Vietnam’s Update – Stock Market

• The VN-Index extended its rally in August, advancing 11.5%. Momentum picked up early in the month after the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) raised the 2025 credit growth quota for banks, providing greater lending capacity to priority sectors and supporting overall economic expansion. Sentiment was further boosted after the Ministry of Finance drafted legal structures for trading platforms in digital assets, carbon credits, and gold. Optimism over a potential emerging market (EM) upgrade supported the sentiment thanks to the meeting between FTSE Russell and SSC regarding equity market upgrade, where feedback was reportedly constructive. Against this backdrop, average daily trading value surged to a record high of USD 2.1bn. Meanwhile, foreign investors continued to realize gains, recording net sales of USD 1.6 bn in August and USD 3.0bn YTD.
• The Financials and Real Estate sectors were still the main drivers while others stayed flat. Financials increased by 18.6% thanks to the rally of both banks and securities firms. Banks advanced 19.9%, lifted by policy measures to stimulate growth, including the expanded credit quota for 2025 and preferential treatment for the four banks involved in the weak-bank restructuring program. The gain was also supported by solid fundamentals, as listed banks posted 15.9% y/y earnings growth in H1/2025, while credit quality notably improved with stable NPLs, a sharp decline in special mention loans, and a robust rise in bad debt recovery income, which drive down the net credit cost ratio.
• Securities companies also had a strong rally with the optimism of EM upgrade and the IPO plans of some major players such as Techcom Securities (TCBS) and VPBank Securities (VPBS). The Real Estate sector was up 15.4%, again driven by Vingroup-related stocks, despite weak earnings results and quality reported last quarter.
• Other major sectors such as Materials, Industrials, and Consumer delivered modest gains from 2-3%. The only sector that declined was Information Technology (2.8%), with FPT under pressure as foreign investors continued trimming positions. A total of USD 179 million worth of shares was sold by foreign investors during the month, expanding its available foreign ownership room to above 12.0%, although this would enhance the stock’s eligibility for inclusion in major ETF indices constructed on a foreign-adjusted free-float basis. Viewed from a fundamental perspective, FPT is expected to sustain high growth, with earnings projected to compound at 17.7% annually over 2026–2029, while the stock is currently trading at a 2025F PEG of 1.1x—suggesting an attractive long-term opportunity despite recent selling pressure.
• Year-to-date, the VN-Index gained nearly 30% in which Financials and Vingroup-related stocks accounted for the majority of the gains
• We see opportunities in the overlooked ones. The VN-Index is trading at 2025F P/E of 13.4x (source: Bloomberg), which is a moderate level comparing with other regional markets such as Thailand (13.9x), Indonesia (12.7x), Malaysia (14.6x). However, the year-to-date performance has been driven mainly by banks and the Vingroup ecosystem, while other sectors, including consumer staples, materials, and healthcare, have been overlooked despite delivering solid H1 earnings that on aggregate outpaced the index price performance drivers. This presents opportunities for investors to rotate toward stocks that have yet to re-rate but stand on strong fundamentals. Looking ahead, structural catalysts—including a potential FTSE Emerging Market upgrade in September and a weakening USD as Fed rate cuts draw closer—remain supportive tailwinds. The earnings outlook is also strong, with 2025 forecasted EPS growth for the top 100 stocks at 12.8%.

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Please download the August 2025 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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