Vietnam November 2025 Outlook – Manufacturing Momentum Powers Economic Resilience

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for November 2025.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in November 2025

Vietnam’s Economy

• Vietnam experienced several storms in November, mostly in Central Vietnam, causing widespread disruptions and an estimated 546
  million-dollar economic damage. The impact on the manufacturing sector was not severe, as major industrial hubs locate in the North and South. In contrast, the agricultural and aquacultural sectors suffered the greatest damage, including crop losses, flooding of farming areas. These effects contributed to higher food prices in November, and upward pressure may persist in the coming months as production will take time to recover after the prolonged flooding. Adverse weather also weighed on retail activity, particularly tourism-related services in Central Vietnam.
• Vietnam’s manufacturing sector maintained the strong expansionary momentum in November with PMI at 53.8. Output, new orders and employment all continued to rise, despite some reports of disruption caused by storms and floods in November. This resilience is reflected in trade performance: 11M/2025 exports and imports grew by 16.1% y/y and 18.4% y/y, respectively, while the trade surplus widened to USD 20.5 billion.
• Poor weather conditions slowed retail sales growth to 9.1% y/y in 11M/2025 as tourism activity in Central Vietnam softened. On the domestic policy front, the government is accelerating measures to support household consumption. Following the approval of higher tax deductions last month, the National Assembly is now reviewing amendments to the personal income tax law aimed at increasing disposable income. The sizable state budget surplus of more than USD 13 billion in 11M/2025 provides additional fiscal room for stimulus.
• Inflation increased to 3.6% in November, driven primarily by higher food prices linked to storm-related agricultural losses. The broader adoption of the new household business tax regime also raised the cost of eating-out services. Additional upward pressure came from housing and construction materials, reflecting tight construction supply, strong infrastructure activity, and higher rental costs. Meanwhile, transportation costs—which had previously helped ease inflation—turned positive due to higher gasoline prices amid high travel demand in year-end season.
• FDI disbursements reached USD 23.6 billion (+8.9% y/y) in 11M/2025, underscoring continued investor confidence. Sweden’s Syre reinforced its USD 1 billion textile recycling investment through a strategic partnership with Nike, while Fushan Technology, a Foxconn subsidiary, filed for approval to expand its production footprint in Vietnam, adding capacity for phones and electronics.
• USD/VND increased 0.2% in November, reflecting the typical year-end increase in foreign-currency demand as import activities accelerate. This upward pressure was partially cushioned by seasonal remittance inflows, which helped ease liquidity tightness in the FX market. Importantly, the interest-rate differential between VND and USD has turned positive by roughly 200bps for the overnight tenor, reducing incentives for USD hoarding and signaling that pressure on the VND should be more contained going forward. Alongside this, the market is increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut in December, which would relieve further support the local currency of Vietnam.

Vietnam’s Stock Market

• The VN-Index rose 3% in November, entirely supported by Vingroup-related companies. Excluding this group, the index would have declined by 1.3%, as most other stocks experienced muted performance. Vingroup’s rally came with little change in fundamentals and was largely a function of its extremely low free float—173 investors currently hold 92.4% of voting rights. This concentrated ownership allows limited buying activity to move the stock significantly. Nonetheless, valuation and leverage level remain stretched, with VIC trading at a 2026F P/B of 7.0x and a D/E ratio of 2.0x as of Q3/2025. Year-to-date, the VN-Index gained 31.1%, of which Vingroup-related companies accounted for roughly two-thirds.
• Average daily trading volume softened to $867 million. Rising deposit rates in the banking system led to moderation in trading activities. Also, a series of new issuances drew liquidity away from secondary trading as investors allocated capital to primary offerings. Foreign investors remained net sellers, with USD 313 million in outflows during the month; however, the pace moderated sharply from the preceding three months, when monthly outflows averaged around USD 1 billion.
• FTSE Russel also released the projected weights of Vietnam in its indices, which range from 0.04% to 0.34%. The inclusion will be made in multiple tranches and details of the phased implementation will be announced, subject to an interim assessment in March 2026.
• Sector performance was unevenly concentrated. Real Estate (+17.2%) led gains, primarily driven by Vingroup (VIC). Consumer Discretionary (+8.6%) and Consumer Staples (+2.5%) also advanced, supported by the recently approved personal income tax regime (raises deductions and lowers tax brackets), which collectively increases disposable income and spending capacity. Additionally, the release of FTSE’s preliminary weighting allocation for 28 Vietnamese stocks in its Emerging indices, which contains some major names in both sectors such as Vinamilk (VNM), Masan Group (MSN), Sabeco (SAB) triggered inflow from both local and foreign investors.
• On the downside, Financials (-1.9%) continued to soften, partly due to concern on higher deposit rate may cause more compression in net interest margin. Nevertheless, the sector’s outlook remains supported by improving asset quality, sustained credit growth and reasonable valuation. Information Technology (-5.8%), with FPT particularly affected, mainly due to the sell-off of global technology stocks affecting local sentiment. However, the outlook for next year remains positive, with backlog improvements since Q3 expected to accelerate further into Q4. The stock was the most foreign net bought stock in the last two months (USD 143 million).
• We continue to focus on identifying opportunities in overlooked companies. The VN-Index is trading at 11.2x 2026F P/E (Bloomberg) and the majority of stocks have not performed despite robust earnings growth. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect a more earnings-driven market rather than a continuation of the current one-group dynamic. The 2026F EPS growth for the top 100 stocks projected at 12.3% with Vingroup-related firms accounting for only 1.2 percentage points of that growth. This suggests broader earnings contributions across sectors, creating opportunities in overlooked stocks with solid fundamentals and appealing valuations. In addition, Vietnam’s anticipated inclusion in the FTSE Secondary Emerging Market category in 2026 is likely to draw more active, fundamentals-oriented investors, which should help improve market efficiency and narrow existing mispricing.

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Please download the November 2025 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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