Vietnam is located in the heart of South-East Asia, with the Pacific Ocean to its East, China to its North and Laos and Cambodia to its West. The country struggled through a turbulent period of war for most of the 20th century until 1975. It remained closed to the world until the reorientation named “Doi Moi” was launched in 1986, which opened a new page for Vietnam’s economy to grow into one of the fastest growing countries in the world.
According to the 2017 report “The World in 2050” by PwC, Vietnam is predicted to make the greatest move up the rankings (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity) of its economy to become the world’s 20th largest economy by 2050 from 30th in 2016. In terms of growth, Vietnam is among the two fastest growing economies during this period. Thanks to its dynamic transformation, the country is benefiting from the shift of value chains and is becoming the new production and technology hub of Asia.
Amidst a rapidly evolving global landscape, investors are increasingly drawn to Asia’s burgeoning economies. Southeast Asia, with its dynamic growth and strategic trade networks, has emerged as a pivotal region. Within this context, Vietnam shines as a beacon of opportunity, offering growth, stability, and long-term returns.
Vietnam lies at the heart of Southeast Asia, strategically positioned within the Valeriepieris Circle, home to 70% of the world’s GDP growth potential. Its prime location is further bolstered by an long eastern coastline and proximity to the China Southern Economic Corridor—dubbed the “Chinese Silicon Valley”—which contributes a remarkable 20% to the China’s GDP. Despite locating in a favorable location, Vietnam struggled through a turbulent period of war for most of the 20th century until 1975. For the next decade, recovery after war was challenging and Vietnam economy grew at a slow pace.
“Doi Moi” Transformed Vietnam from Low to The Brink of Upper-Middle-Income Status
“Doi Moi,” or “Renovation,” introduced in 1986, marked Vietnam’s transition from a centrally planned economy to a socialist-oriented market economy. By opening its doors to global trade, fostering private enterprise, and attracting foreign investment, the reform propelled Vietnam into one of the fastest-growing economies of the 21st century, with GDP per capita rising twelvefold at an average annual rate of 11.3%.
Vietnam’s strategic embrace of globalization has been the cornerstone of its economic success. Joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 marked a turning point, opening the nation to global trade and investment opportunities. Since then, Vietnam has expanded its international reach through 17 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), securing preferential access to major economies and embedding itself into the global value chain.
Vietnam’s extensive trade integration, coupled with competitive manufacturing and labor costs, has made it a magnet for multinational giants. Nike, one of the earliest movers, began investing in Vietnam in 1995. Over time, as the country developed a more skilled labor force, it shifted toward higher value-added industries, such as electronics. Samsung followed suit in 2008, marking a pivotal moment in Vietnam’s transformation. Today, Vietnam accounts for 50% of Nike’s global footwear production and 30% of Samsung’s global revenue.
But Nike and Samsung are just the tip of the iceberg. Global FDI flows into Vietnam have consistently outpaced those of other countries. From an average FDI disbursement of 4.4% of GDP during 2010-2015, the figure accelerated to 4.6% during 2016-2023 thanks to the “China Plus One” strategy. By now, Vietnam has become one of the most globalized countries in the world.
The benefits of integration extend beyond trade figures; they are driving robust economic growth, transforming consumer wealth, and fueling a rapidly growing middle class. Consumption has been growing rapidly, illustrated by the rising contribution of services sector in the GDP structure from 38% in 2000 to 43% in 2024
Đổi Mới 2.0: Vietnam’s Vision for a High-Income Economy by 2045
After three decades of robust economic growth, the COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions have posed significant challenges, not just for Vietnam but for the global economy. To navigate these headwinds and sustain its growth trajectory, Vietnam is embarking on what can be described as Đổi Mới 2.0 – a bold wave of reforms centered on enhancing government efficiency and an unprecedented infrastructure transformation.
Streamlining Government for Growth: “It cannot be delayed any longer”- General Secretary To Lam
At the core of Vietnam’s transformation is an ambitious “anti-waste” campaign targeting inefficiencies in government spending. Over 70% of the state budget currently goes to recurring expenses such as salaries and operational costs—significantly higher than the 40-50% seen in developed economies. To address this, the government is planning for aggressive cost-cutting measures, including merging five ministries, closing ineffective departments, and encouraging early retirements among senior officials.
Proposed mergers include the Ministry of Planning and Investment with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport with the Ministry of Construction. These measures aim to reduce 15-20% of government units, while surplus personnel will either be relocated to new roles within the streamlined entities or supported by provincial authorities during their job transitions. While the restructuring may incur one-off expenses, such as severance and relocation costs, it is expected to ease long-term spending pressures significantly. Final approvals are expected by February 2025, paving the way for a more efficient procedural framework to resolve bottlenecks hindering investment projects.
Infrastructure as an Economic Game-Changer
Vietnam’s bold administrative reforms are laying the groundwork for tackling one of its most critical challenges: high logistics costs, currently at 18% of GDP—well above regional peers like Thailand and Indonesia at 14%. To tackle this, Vietnam is embarking on its most ambitious infrastructure upgrade in decades.
Key projects include the $67 billion North-South High-Speed Railway, approved by the National Assembly, which will reduce travel time by land between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City from 37 to just 5 hours and contribute 1% annually to GDP during its construction. The $16 billion Long Thanh International Airport, poised to be Southeast Asia’s premier aviation hub, is being fast-tracked for early 2026, with supporting infrastructure upgrades underway.
Urban transit is also a priority. Ho Chi Minh City’s first metro line opened in December 2024, with further plans for a 355-kilometer metro network by 2030, while Hanoi targets 418 kilometers. Combined investments for these networks exceed $77 billion, underscoring Vietnam’s transformative push toward modernized transportation and economic connectivity.
The first milestone of Vietnam’s integration into the global economy was becoming the seventh member of ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations and normalizing relations with the U.S. in 1995. Following this, the country officially joined the WTO in 2006, which opened the gates for made-in-Vietnam products to reach global markets. Until now, Vietnam is a member of 15 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which includes many trading partners within the EU, Asia, and Americas.
Thanks to its favorable location, competitive labor costs and wide connection to the global economy, Vietnam has experienced waves of investment from leading global FDI firms. For instance, Samsung and LG have invested 25 billion USD into Vietnam, leading to the country becoming a production hub for high-tech products. As a result, Vietnam’s market share in global exports has doubled from 1994 to 2022 and become one of the most open countries in the world given total trade nearly doubles nominal GDP.
Vietnam’s compelling growth story presents several lucrative opportunities for business. Vietnam’s economy is connecting more to the global economy, accelerating its industrialization progress. The country is expected to undergo massive infrastructure investment in coming years, spurring urbanization. Through the government’s continued efforts to develop public institutions and strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals, Vietnam is well positioned to be one of the most vibrant and dynamic places to do business over next several decades.
Further integration into the global economy. Low labor costs, a young population and its strategic location have helped Vietnam to welcome a large number of FDI companies over the last 20 years. Now, thanks to the US-China trade war, multi-FTAs and commitment to net zero-carbon, Vietnam is benefiting from the China +1 strategy and has an opportunity to move up the value chain in certain sectors. This will allow access to advanced technology to produce greater complex product lines and provide an even greater contribution to global export.
Emergence of the middle-income class. Strong economic growth and stable inflation are the keys to enhancing personal wealth steadily. Combined with a young, willing-to-spend, tech-savvy population there stands a solid base for domestic consumption to grow. According to Fitch Solutions, Vietnam’s consumer market is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.5% over the next five years. This growth is expected to result in the market size reaching a significant milestone of 300 billion USD by 2026.
Rising urbanization rate. Vietnam currently spends around 6% of its GDP on infrastructure, the largest among ASEAN countries. However, given over 60% of the population is still living in rural areas, the need for further spending is still significant. Thanks to a low public debt to GDP ratio (below 40%), Vietnam has significant room to improve infrastructure to reach a 60% urban population in 2050 as forecast by Fitch Solutions.
Vietnam is a one-party state ruled by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), which helps the country to be one of the most politically stable countries in South East Asia
227 USD/month which is only half of the labor cost of China and 30% lower than the average of the regional peers
Vietnam parties to 15 different Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with over 80 countries in the world
Vietnam, unlike other South East Asia countries, shares a border with China, enabling investors to move part of their production while still being close to China’s manufacturing hub, reducing costs without interrupting the supply chain