Vietnam October 2026 Outlook – Market Correction Creates Opportunities

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for October 2026.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in October 2026

Vietnam’s Economy

• Vietnam expanded its FTA network to 18 agreements, covering over 80% of global GDP. On October 18, Vietnam signed an FTA with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, concluding negotiations that began in 2012 and regained momentum in 2025 amid rising global trade tensions and uncertainty over US tariff policies. Vietnam also upgraded its relationship with Denmark to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in October, accompanied by 16 cooperation agreements across key sectors, including renewable energy, logistics infrastructure and manufacturing.
• Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in October from 51.9 in September. Survey respondents continued to report growth in output and new orders, albeit at a slower pace, while rising transportation costs and longer delivery times posed headwinds for manufacturers. Trade activity remained strong, with exports and imports rising 27.5% y/y and 37.4% y/y, respectively, in 10M/2026. October recorded a trade surplus of approximately $6.8bn, the second consecutive monthly surplus, narrowing the cumulative deficit to $12.7bn. This is consistent with our expectation that the trade deficit will narrow further toward year-end.
• FDI disbursement reached $24.1bn, up 13.1% y/y, with manufacturing accounting for nearly 83% of the total. Active economic diplomacy continued to attract investment commitments from global companies. For instance, Carlsberg plans to invest an additional $65mn in its Phu Bai Brewery in Hue during 2026–2031. Meanwhile, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world’s largest container shipping company with approximately 22% global market share, expressed interest in expanding its presence in Vietnam, particularly in port infrastructure and international cargo transshipment.
• Retail sales maintained solid growth of 14.7% y/y, while inflation stayed flat at 5.1% in October. Vietnam welcomed 19.5mn international visitors in 10M/2026 (+13.8% y/y), providing further support to consumer services. On the inflation front, higher fuel and construction material prices added cost pressures, partly offset by declining rice and hog prices. Fiscal conditions remained favorable, with a budget surplus exceeding $12bn in 10M, providing room for additional policy support. To ease cost pressures, the government announced a reduction in fuel taxes to zero from November 2026 and a 2% cut in retail electricity prices from November 2026 through March 2027.
• Public investment growth accelerated to 19.8%, reflecting increased infrastructure construction activity, also evident in the strong earnings growth of steel and cement producers. With public investment disbursement typically accelerating in Q4, we expect infrastructure spending to remain a key growth driver toward year-end.
• The VND further strengthened against the USD, appreciating nearly 1.5% year to date. High domestic interest rates have supported the attractiveness of VND assets, while solid FDI inflows and increased overseas funding by Vietnamese banks have bolstered foreign currency inflows. Meanwhile, tighter oversight of the gold market may have provided additional support, reflected in the balance of payments as net errors and omissions turned positive at over $9bn in Q2. Looking ahead, an improving trade balance should further strengthen Vietnam’s external position and provide continued support for the VND.

Vietnam’s Stock Market

• The VN-Index edged down 0.9% in October, as persistently high interest rates and prolonged geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment despite solid Q3 corporate earnings. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s request for commercial banks to lower deposit rates helped the market partially recover toward month-end. Average daily trading value declined 2.8% m/m to $663mn, while foreign investors recorded net outflows of $805mn in October and $4.6bn YTD. However, nearly half of October’s outflows came from a negotiated block transaction involving Masan Consumer (MCH), rather than regular market trading.
• Corporate earnings continued to reflect solid economic activity. Q3/2026 net profit of 894 listed companies, excluding Vingroup-related firms, grew 22.0% y/y, supported by broad-based business growth across key sectors.
  • Hoa Phat Group (HPG), Vietnam’s largest steel producer, reported 106% net profit growth, supported by a 47.8% increase in sales volume and higher selling prices, reflecting sustained demand from construction activities.
  • Techcombank (TCB), the country’s second-largest private bank by assets, recorded 23.7% profit growth, driven by credit expansion and higher fee income, reflecting continued growth in financial activity.
  • Masan Consumer (MCH), one of Vietnam’s leading consumer companies, reported 15.1% profit growth, supported by improvements in both selling prices and sales volumes.
• Despite solid earnings, Real Estate (+2.6%) was the only gaining sector, driven almost entirely by Vingroup (VIC, +6.4%). Vingroup-related stocks now account for nearly 30% of the VN-Index. Although their Q3 earnings exceeded market expectations, profit growth was driven by non-recurring income, including asset disposals and donations from the Chairman, while leverage remained elevated, with an assets-to-equity ratio of 6.9x.
• October’s market correction has created opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong companies beyond the index heavyweights. The Top 100 ex-Vingroup related firms trade at just 9.8x 2026F P/E, with projected EPS growth of 22.7% in 2026 and 10.9% in 2027. As global investors reassess their exposure to AI and technology stocks following recent corrections, Vietnam offers an attractive alternative, supported by domestic consumption, manufacturing and infrastructure investment.

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Please download the October 2026 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

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