We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for April 2025.

Vietnam’s Update – Economy

One month after Trump’s announcement of the ” reciprocal tariff , Vietnam’s economy has shown some impact on trade and manufacturing , though domestic conditions remain resilient , supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies . According to the Vietnamese Prime Minister , trade talks with the U.S. will begin on May 7 , and we anticipate a constructive outcome . Our base case projects the tariff being reduced to 20-30 % alongside proactive government measures , supporting our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 6.3 % . For more details , please refer to our latest presentation.

• 4M / 2025 retail sales sustained a strong momentum of 9.9 % yly , fueled by tourism and event related spending . Vietnam held a grand ceremony on April 30 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of National Reunification , with the participation of 13,000 marchers and drawing significant attention from travelers nationwide coming to Ho Chi Minh City . On the international tourism front , the country welcomed 7.7 million visitors , marking robust growth of 23.8 % yly . Notably , arrivals from key markets such as China and South Korea surpassed pre – COVID levels by 14.5 % and 9.7 % , respectively .
• Inflation remained under control . April CPI rose 3.1 % yly , primarily driven by a 4.1 % increase in food prices and a 13.6 % surge in healthcare costs , following government price adjustments and seasonal flu outbreaks . Higher pork prices and rising costs of dining – out services were key contributors to food inflation , although a 20 % year – to – date decline in rice prices helped offset some of the pressure . Meanwhile , a 6.9 % drop in transportation costs , reflecting lower gasoline prices , also played a role in keeping overall inflation at manageable levels.
• PMI dropped to 45.6 in April , but trading activities accelerated . Although the PMI slipped into contractionary territory , exports in April accelerated by 19.9 % yly , likely driven by manufacturers frontloading inventories during the 90 – day postponement of Trump’s tariff . We expect export momentum to continue into the second quarter , with the PMI gradually rebounding as imports surged 22.1 % yly , signaling increased raw material imports for future production and exports . Overall , 4M / 2025 exports and imports grew by 13.0 % yly and 18.6 % yly respectively , recording a trade surplus of $ 9.0 billion .
• Temporary slow in FDI as expected . Total FDI registration and disbursement in April reached $ 2.8 billion and $ 1.8 billion , respectively , marking a slowdown from previous months as FDI companies paused investment decisions amid rising global trade uncertainty . While we acknowledge the risk of temporarily lower FDI inflows , a large – scale outflow remains unlikely . Moving a factory usually takes 2-3 years while U.S. president term is 4 years . At the same time , Vietnam holds competitive advantages that are difficult to be replicated such as high – skilled labors at low cost , strategic location and an upgrading infrastructure across the country .
• A significant budget surplus gives room for further public investment . In 4M / 2025 , the govemment reported a 26.3 % increase in revenue while expenses only rose by 15.2 % , concluding the budget surplus of $ 13.5bn . Vietnam is on the way of diversifying its growth model from export to investment led consumption , in which infrastructure investment to play a vital role . Gross capital formation is only 31.7 % of GDP , comparable to China in 1999 , suggesting considerable headroom . The govemment is fast – tracking investment in roads , ports , and logistics infrastructure to lower logistics costs ( cumently at 17 % of the GDP , much higher than the region’s ) . Lower logistic costs mean improving business profitability and stimulating household consumption .
• The USD appreciated by 2.4 % against the VND year – to – date . The DXY index has declined 8.3 % year – to – date , but pressure on the Vietnam Dong ( VND ) has persisted due to the country’s continued low – interest rate stance to support growth . This pressure may extend into Q2 , weighed down by slower FDI disbursement impacting the balance of payments . However , a rebound is expected from 03 , with the VND likely ending the year with a 3 % depreciation , supported by the weakening DXY , a gradual recovery in FDI and exports as businesses adjust to the ” new nomal ” and expectations that the State Bank of Vietnam will shift away from an overly loose monetary policy .

Vietnam’s Update – Stock Market

• The VN – Index declined by 7.6 % with high volatility . The market plunged into panic selling during the first week , with the VN – Index tumbling 17 % in just four days following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 46 % reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US . Sentiment briefly improved after the announcement of a 90 – day tariff pause , triggering a rebound across the board . Eamings release of the first quarter also supported the sentiment , but caution lingered in the market , as investors remained sensitive to the potential impact of tariffs . Foreign investors were net sellers of $ 563 million , though we also witnessed a bottom catching effort from local investors , especially in quality names that are less exposed to tariff risks . pushing the average daily trading volume to $ 906 million ( + 11 % mm ) .
• Panic sell outweighed the fundamentals . Although only 14 % of the VN – Index are in companies which are export- and FDI – linked , many sectors witnessed a sharp decline such as Financials ( -7.7 % ) , Information Technology ( -10.0 % ) . Even defensive sectors , namely Consumer Staples and Health Care , also suffer a considerable comection of 3.6 % and 4.0 % respectively . The Real Estate sector was the sole gainer , rising 6.4 % , driven by Vinhomes ( VHM ) and Vingroup ( VIC ) . VHM released strong Q1 result , which was up threefold year – on – year , which also supported the stock price of VIC , VHM’s parent company .
• Q1 / 2025 results look solid . All companies have released their Q1 / 2025 earnings , showing strong growth across sectors . Aggregate net profit of listed companies on the three bourses rose 11.8 % year – over – year , with banks posting solid earnings growth of 15.3 % yly and real estate firms reporting a sharp 59.3 % yly profit increase .
• Continued volatility ahead , but the outlook remains opportunistic . As the situation remains fluid , and over 80 % of the trading volume is retail investors , we expect high volatility to persist . We acknowledge the tariffs indirect impact , but the underlying fundamentals remain sound with EPS growth for the top 100 stocks projected at 15.9 % . Valuations also remain compelling with the top 100 trading at a 2025F PIE of 10.6x , reinforcing Vietnam’s appeal as a compelling diversification opportunity for global investors .
• The new trading system is live . Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchanged announced the implementation of KRX trading system on 5 May 2025. Though some technical issues were observed in the first few days of launch , these are minimal and do not impact on the daily trading activities . The implementation of KRX will help to address the settlement cycle requirement by FTSE , supporting Vietnam’s roadmap to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status .

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Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomics and Stock market in April 2025