April 2025 Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam

We would like to present you our monthly Macroeconomic & Stock Market Highlights for Vietnam alongside with the monthly performance update of the TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate for April 2025.

Vietnam’s Update – Economy

One month after Trump’s announcement of the ” reciprocal tariff , Vietnam’s economy has shown some impact on trade and manufacturing , though domestic conditions remain resilient , supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies . According to the Vietnamese Prime Minister , trade talks with the U.S. will begin on May 7 , and we anticipate a constructive outcome . Our base case projects the tariff being reduced to 20-30 % alongside proactive government measures , supporting our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 6.3 % . For more details , please refer to our latest presentation.

• 4M / 2025 retail sales sustained a strong momentum of 9.9 % yly , fueled by tourism and event related spending . Vietnam held a grand ceremony on April 30 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of National Reunification , with the participation of 13,000 marchers and drawing significant attention from travelers nationwide coming to Ho Chi Minh City . On the international tourism front , the country welcomed 7.7 million visitors , marking robust growth of 23.8 % yly . Notably , arrivals from key markets such as China and South Korea surpassed pre – COVID levels by 14.5 % and 9.7 % , respectively .
• Inflation remained under control . April CPI rose 3.1 % yly , primarily driven by a 4.1 % increase in food prices and a 13.6 % surge in healthcare costs , following government price adjustments and seasonal flu outbreaks . Higher pork prices and rising costs of dining – out services were key contributors to food inflation , although a 20 % year – to – date decline in rice prices helped offset some of the pressure . Meanwhile , a 6.9 % drop in transportation costs , reflecting lower gasoline prices , also played a role in keeping overall inflation at manageable levels.
• PMI dropped to 45.6 in April , but trading activities accelerated . Although the PMI slipped into contractionary territory , exports in April accelerated by 19.9 % yly , likely driven by manufacturers frontloading inventories during the 90 – day postponement of Trump’s tariff . We expect export momentum to continue into the second quarter , with the PMI gradually rebounding as imports surged 22.1 % yly , signaling increased raw material imports for future production and exports . Overall , 4M / 2025 exports and imports grew by 13.0 % yly and 18.6 % yly respectively , recording a trade surplus of $ 9.0 billion .
• Temporary slow in FDI as expected . Total FDI registration and disbursement in April reached $ 2.8 billion and $ 1.8 billion , respectively , marking a slowdown from previous months as FDI companies paused investment decisions amid rising global trade uncertainty . While we acknowledge the risk of temporarily lower FDI inflows , a large – scale outflow remains unlikely . Moving a factory usually takes 2-3 years while U.S. president term is 4 years . At the same time , Vietnam holds competitive advantages that are difficult to be replicated such as high – skilled labors at low cost , strategic location and an upgrading infrastructure across the country .
• A significant budget surplus gives room for further public investment . In 4M / 2025 , the govemment reported a 26.3 % increase in revenue while expenses only rose by 15.2 % , concluding the budget surplus of $ 13.5bn . Vietnam is on the way of diversifying its growth model from export to investment led consumption , in which infrastructure investment to play a vital role . Gross capital formation is only 31.7 % of GDP , comparable to China in 1999 , suggesting considerable headroom . The govemment is fast – tracking investment in roads , ports , and logistics infrastructure to lower logistics costs ( cumently at 17 % of the GDP , much higher than the region’s ) . Lower logistic costs mean improving business profitability and stimulating household consumption .
• The USD appreciated by 2.4 % against the VND year – to – date . The DXY index has declined 8.3 % year – to – date , but pressure on the Vietnam Dong ( VND ) has persisted due to the country’s continued low – interest rate stance to support growth . This pressure may extend into Q2 , weighed down by slower FDI disbursement impacting the balance of payments . However , a rebound is expected from 03 , with the VND likely ending the year with a 3 % depreciation , supported by the weakening DXY , a gradual recovery in FDI and exports as businesses adjust to the ” new nomal ” and expectations that the State Bank of Vietnam will shift away from an overly loose monetary policy .

Vietnam’s Update – Stock Market

• The VN – Index declined by 7.6 % with high volatility . The market plunged into panic selling during the first week , with the VN – Index tumbling 17 % in just four days following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 46 % reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US . Sentiment briefly improved after the announcement of a 90 – day tariff pause , triggering a rebound across the board . Eamings release of the first quarter also supported the sentiment , but caution lingered in the market , as investors remained sensitive to the potential impact of tariffs . Foreign investors were net sellers of $ 563 million , though we also witnessed a bottom catching effort from local investors , especially in quality names that are less exposed to tariff risks . pushing the average daily trading volume to $ 906 million ( + 11 % mm ) .
• Panic sell outweighed the fundamentals . Although only 14 % of the VN – Index are in companies which are export- and FDI – linked , many sectors witnessed a sharp decline such as Financials ( -7.7 % ) , Information Technology ( -10.0 % ) . Even defensive sectors , namely Consumer Staples and Health Care , also suffer a considerable comection of 3.6 % and 4.0 % respectively . The Real Estate sector was the sole gainer , rising 6.4 % , driven by Vinhomes ( VHM ) and Vingroup ( VIC ) . VHM released strong Q1 result , which was up threefold year – on – year , which also supported the stock price of VIC , VHM’s parent company .
• Q1 / 2025 results look solid . All companies have released their Q1 / 2025 earnings , showing strong growth across sectors . Aggregate net profit of listed companies on the three bourses rose 11.8 % year – over – year , with banks posting solid earnings growth of 15.3 % yly and real estate firms reporting a sharp 59.3 % yly profit increase .
• Continued volatility ahead , but the outlook remains opportunistic . As the situation remains fluid , and over 80 % of the trading volume is retail investors , we expect high volatility to persist . We acknowledge the tariffs indirect impact , but the underlying fundamentals remain sound with EPS growth for the top 100 stocks projected at 15.9 % . Valuations also remain compelling with the top 100 trading at a 2025F PIE of 10.6x , reinforcing Vietnam’s appeal as a compelling diversification opportunity for global investors .
• The new trading system is live . Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchanged announced the implementation of KRX trading system on 5 May 2025. Though some technical issues were observed in the first few days of launch , these are minimal and do not impact on the daily trading activities . The implementation of KRX will help to address the settlement cycle requirement by FTSE , supporting Vietnam’s roadmap to be upgraded to Secondary Emerging Market status .

Invest with us:

Please download the April 2025 Factsheet for our TIM Vietnam Actively Managed Certificate.

You can find more information about our products and feel free to get in touch with us at your convenience.

Watch our video recap of key takeaways of the Vietnam Marcroeconomic and Stock market in April 2025