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Vinamilk (VNM VN) – Q1 2026 Earnings – Strong Profit Growth on Domestic Recovery and Export Expansion
Summary of Q1 2026 results and outlook of Vinamilk JSC (VNM VN)
- Revenue reached VND16,149bn (+24.8% y/y), supported by domestic sales normalization and overseas expansion. Domestic revenue rose 20.4% y/y to VND12,080bn, reflecting a low base following the completion of distribution system restructuring and restocking demand as distributors adapted to stricter tax and e-invoicing regulations. International revenue increased 39.2% y/y to VND4,069bn, mainly led by Cambodia (~32% of international sales), which nearly tripled y/y as VNM captured displaced demand from Thailand. Following border tensions since Q2/2025, Cambodia’s milk imports from Thailand declined sharply to ~USD0.6mn in Q1/2026 (-98.6% y/y), as Thailand accounted for ~75% of Cambodia’s milk imports in 2024. The Middle East (~40% of international sales) still grew ~20% y/y, as disruptions emerged only in March 2026 after VNM had largely completed its January-February shipments. To partly mitigate these disruptions, VNM rerouted Iraq shipments through Jordan instead of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher revenue and lower milk input costs lifted gross profit margin, more than offsetting higher SG&A expenses and driving net profit growth of 54.9% y/y.
- Looking ahead, the local dairy market is expected to maintain single-digit growth, with Euromonitor projecting a 2.0% CAGR over 2025-2030. VNM’s domestic sales should be supported by product portfolio expansion, omni-channel development, and stronger direct-to-consumer engagement. The company has continued to launch new products to capture shifting consumer preferences and demographic changes, including plant-based offerings, organic and premium fresh milk, and functional dairy drinks for elderly consumers. It has also strengthened its presence in modern trade and e-commerce, while expanding its dairy store network and deepening rural penetration to broaden consumer access. Internationally, accredited production standards, competitive pricing, and tailored offerings should continue to support market diversification.
- For the last 9M/2026, domestic sales are projected to grow as restocking normalizes. International sales are mainly supported by continued demand from Cambodia amid ongoing border tensions, although softer Middle East sales are expected to moderate overall growth. In the Middle East, regional tensions may weigh on consumer demand, while longer delivery times from alternative routes could affect export volumes. The U.S. and other markets are expected to remain steady contributors. Gross profit margin is forecast to improve, supported by low-cost inventory secured during the decline in global milk powder prices late last year.
Interested in VNM? Read our previous analysis on VNM’s quarterly earnings.
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Featured image credit: https://www.vinamilk.com.vn/
