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Techcombank (TCB VN) – Q3 2026 – Credit Growth and Fees Lift Profit
Summary of 9M 2026 results and outlook of Techcombank (TCB VN)
- Net profit rose 21.3% y/y on solid credit expansion, gradual margin recovery and a stronger contribution from fee income. Total credit grew 19.4% y/y, led by corporate lending on infrastructure-related financing demand from major national projects and strong demand across trading and manufacturing sectors. In retail banking, TCB continued shifting toward higher-yielding products, including smaller-ticket unsecured loans, while mortgage demand slowed amid high interest rates. NIM narrowed 9 bps y/y in 9M/2026, yet improved notably by 38 bps in Q3 from the Q1 low, as lending yields repriced faster while TCB refrained from aggressive deposit-rate competition. NFI surged 68.1% y/y, led by a ~2.4x rise in payment services reflected the continued expansion of trade-finance solutions, alongside insurance income growth of 106.1% y/y. Operating expenses rose 18.7% y/y as the bank continued investing in technology capabilities and customer acquisition, while the CIR remained highly efficient at 30.5%. Asset quality experienced some pressure from the higher-rate environment, with the NPL ratio edging up to 1.3%, yet remaining among the lowest in the sector.
- TCB’s strong credit profile secured offshore funding access, diversifying funding base and underpinning NIM recovery amid intense competition. The bank’s funding structure was notably strengthened by broad access to offshore funding, following TCB’s EUR200mn financing agreement with the European Investment Bank and TCX’s USD488mn international syndicated loan secured in H1/2026. In Q3, the bank completed a USD 1.0bn transaction with reputable international lenders at competitive spreads, reflecting strong lender confidence. These transactions brought TCB’s foreign borrowing balance to over USD3.0bn, up 96.3% YTD. This secured the bank stable medium- to long-term funding to support growth, reduced reliance on deposit-rate competition, and contained funding cost increases, facilitating a robust NIM recovery.
- Q4/2026 net income is projected to be bolstered by steady credit growth, continued NIM recovery supported by the sizable offshore funding secured in Q3, and fee income remaining a key driver across payments, cards and insurance.
- We forecast 2027F net profit to be driven by credit growth. Continued financing of major infrastructure projects and other fast-growing economic sectors such as trading, logistics and industrial production should drive corporate lending, while affordable housing gains momentum as supply improves, supporting mortgage recovery. NIM is set to remain stable on a strengthened funding base and effective funding cost optimization. Fee income is expected to maintain strong momentum on the growing contribution of the insurance subsidiaries, expanding payment and card solutions, and stronger IB fees as capital market conditions improve.
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