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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from TIM!
Dear valued investors, partners and friends,
The Soccer World Cup is over, the cricket is on and 2022 is almost wrapped up. As we look forward to the New Year, let us all take a moment to reflect upon the year that was.
2022 has been a year like no other. Economic and geopolitical turmoil have defined the past 12 months. The push and pull of inflation and interest rates, full employment and millions of jobs unfilled, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China-Taiwan tensions, unchecked demand and broken supply chains, and exuberant investors โ all have made for a wild ride as central banks deliberately cause a recession through an overtightening policy in an attempt to rein in inflation. In Vietnam, although the economy remains resilient, the equity market or VNINDEX has been experiencing its most volatile year since 2010 given ramped-up anti-corruption campaigns from the government and a 200bps policy rates increase in one month. This leads us to believe the new regime of greater macroeconomics and market volatility is playing out, and a bottom-up look at companies is the most insightful lens to have going forward.
Amid this structural transformation, we ask a different question: with a 2023F P/E ratio of 9.9x, has the VNINDEX bottomed out yet? Of course, the answer is unknowable. However, we as valued-investing managers are supposed to focus solely on company fundamentals and bottom-up analysis. Over the years, we have thoroughly assessed our understanding of what the Earnings (E) and Book value (B) of our selected stocks are. No matter what pricing fluctuations are raging, we are confident that our selections will stand resiliently throughout the storm and be ready to upswing in the future thanks to their robust fundamentals.
The year of the tiger is coming to an end, and Vietnam is ready to roar back next year. We are honored to partner with you, and we consider it a privilege that you invest with us. Once again, we would like to extend our warmest wishes to you and your family. May your holiday season be merry and bright, and we look forward to working with you in the prosperous New Year of 2023.
Take care and with warmest regards,
Marco Martinelli & The TIM Team
