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Vinamilk (VNM VN) – 9M 2025 Earnings – International Growth Drives Recovery Momentum
Summary of 9M 2025 results and outlook of Vinamilk JSC (VNM VN)
- Net revenue was almost flat y/y to VND46,611bn, as 13.7% growth international sales offset a 2.2% decline in domestic sales (79.6% of total) aligning with the industry’s -1.4% y/y (AC Nielsen). Domestic sales decline was due to the temporary destocking effect caused by traditional-channel restructuring under stricter tax and e-invoice regulations. Vinamilk responded decisively by deploying staff to assist retailers, accelerating direct-to-consumer initiatives (dairy store expansion, e-commerce on Shopee/TikTok), and launching new products (plant-based beverages, premium Greek yogurts, elderly nutrition). These efforts showed a 4.4% y/y domestic sales recovery in Q3, narrowing H1’s weak results.
- Net profit fell 9.6% y/y to VND6,570bn, as the temporary lower revenue weighed on higher operating expenses tied to intensified marketing, promotions, and new product launches. The rising share of modern trade channels also required deeper discounts and additional branding expenses.
- Outlook: The domestic dairy market is expected to maintain single-digit growth, with per-capita consumption still below regional peers but constrained by declining birth rates (1.9 in 2024 vs. 2.1 in 2019) and rising urban market maturity. Vinamilk is sustaining its leadership via three priorities: (1) Product diversification & premiumization, upgrading core dairy lines while expanding into high-growth plant-based beverages (only 3.3 liter per-capita consumption), and elderly nutrition products to capture demographic shift, (2) Channel optimization, increasing modern trade & e-commerce to 26% of local sales (vs. 23% in 2023) while stabilizing traditional channels post-regulation, and (3) Market coverage enhancement, deepening rural penetration to capture rising demand. International market remains a key growth driver, rising from 16% of total revenue in 2023 to 20% in 9M/2025, with a 24% target by 2030. An internationally accredited product range (FSSC 22000, Halal, Organic EU/China), competitive pricing, tailored offerings, and China’s new approval for imports support sustained growth, balancing softer domestic dynamics.
- For Q4/2025, we expect a recovery as distributors and retailers complete their adaptation to new regulations and rebuild inventories, driving improved topline and profitability.
- For 2026: The improvement is driven by growing sales in both domestic and international markets, improved gross margin from lower input milk powder prices, and a higher scale in domestic sales.
Interested in VNM? Read our previous analysis on VNM’s quarterly earnings.
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