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Vietnam Q3 2026 Outlook: Everything is moving but the price – yet
Vietnam wrapped up the first half of 2026 with strong momentum. GDP grew 8.2%, beating expectations despite geopolitical uncertainty, while manufacturing stayed firmly in expansion and both international arrivals and FDI disbursement climbed. Although inflation ticked up to 4.7% on higher oil prices, the local currency was stable and the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.
What makes the current moment interesting is a striking paradox. Corporate earnings are delivering double-digit growth, yet the stock market has been a one-man show — the VN-Index is up 5.2% year-to-date, but virtually all of those gains have come from Vingroup-related names. Strip those out, and the market is trading at a forward P/E of just 10.4 times, a 32% discount to regional peers.
That is exactly where we see the opportunity. Looking into the second half, we expect FY2026 GDP growth of 7.5%, supported by accelerating infrastructure investment, resilient manufacturing, and a consumption recovery aided by tax measures and a tourism boom.
For the equity market, we see three catalysts that could close the gap. First, liquidity is improving as bank deposit rates peak. Second, earnings for the top 100 companies (excluding Vingroup) are set to grow 17% this year and nearly 13% next year, yet many still trade near the bottom of their five-year valuation range. Third, Vietnam continues to climb the global index ladder, with FTSE Russell inclusion from September and MSCI Emerging Markets Watch List entry expected by June 2027.
At a time when much of the world’s capital is concentrated in a handful of expensive AI winners, Vietnam offers a genuinely different opportunity — strong fundamentals, resilient earnings, and ongoing reforms, much of it still available at attractive valuations.
To make it easy to follow, we’ve prepared a brief recap of the key takeaways in an Avatar video:
