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US Tariff: Washington’s “zero-deal” scoreboard is creating first-mover advantages
US Tariff updates – The U.S. has yet to close a single trade pact with any of the 90 countries it is currently negotiating with – China remains a stalemate, and every passing day shifts leverage toward nations prepared to act.
Negotiation progress between the US and 90 countries
Vietnam is seizing that window.
• US $3 billion in new MoUs for American corn, soymeal and timber signal Hanoi’s willingness to narrow the bilateral gap.
• Prediction markets now price a 56 % chance that a formal U.S.–Vietnam deal is struck before July 2025—among the highest odds globally and still climbing.
Which countries will the US agree to trade deals with before July
By pairing tangible purchase commitments with steady diplomacy, Vietnam is positioning itself as one of the White House’s quickest “win” and strengthening its hand in parallel negotiations on defense, airlines, and energy.
At the same time, U.S. businesses caution that imposing tariffs on Vietnam could ultimately harm American interests. In a joint letter to officials in both countries, the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi wrote: “We urge the US government to consider this deficit trend as evidence of President Trump’s success during his first term in diversifying supply chains in the Indo-Pacific region. We urge the US to avoid retaliatory and sectoral tariff measures against the logical outcome of its own policy goals.”
