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Techcombank (TCB VN) – Q3 2025 – Strong Credit Growth Offsets Margin Pressure
Summary of 9M 2025 results and outlook of Techcombank (TCB VN)
- Net profit grew moderately by 2.5% y/y, as robust credit expansion and solid asset quality improvement was offset by sharp margin contraction. Total credit expanded by 22.0% y/y, supported by strong momentum in the real estate market, which continued to drive strong financing demand from both developers and homebuyers. The bank’s ongoing diversification strategy also benefited from vibrant economic activity, with lending to the manufacturing, trading, and utilities sectors gaining significant traction. Net interest margin (NIM), however, contracted by 76 bps in line with sector trends as banks lower interest rate to compete for high growth. Nonetheless, margin pressure began to ease in Q3, aided by improved funding costs thanks to robust CASA growth and improving lending yield. Net fee income (NFI) declined by 5.7% y/y, primarily due to the reclassification of letter of credit products into interest income. Despite this, investment banking (IB) fees surged 32.8% y/y, on the back of strong bond underwriting and distribution volume from Techcom Securities (TCX). Bancassurance also gained significant momentum, rising 34.8% y/y as the bank regaining leading market position. Operating expenses increased 9.2% y/y, primarily due to investments in technology infrastructure and branding initiatives. Asset quality remained resilient, with the NPL ratio improving to 1.2%, among the lowest in the sector, while provisioning expenses fell 9.1% y/y as pressure eased under stronger macroeconomic conditions.
- Successful IPO of TCX raising substantial capital for continue business expansion. In October the bank’s securities brokerage arm successfully completed its IPO, raising VND 10.8tn in new capital. Post-listing TCB retained a 79.8% stake in TCX.
- Q4/2025 net income is projected to rise on a low base last year due to the absence of the VND 1.8tn compensation fee from its bancassurance contract termination while the bank maintains robust growth momentum and strong profitability.
- We forecast 2026F net profit to be driven by credit growth. Besides real estate development, sectors like public infrastructure projects, logistics and industrial production are expected to drive corporate lending, while affordable housing is set to gain momentum as supply improve, supporting robust mortgage growth. NIM is projected to improve as faster upward repricing of lending yield, underway since Q3/2025, more than offsets pressure from rising deposit rate. Fee income is expected to rebound from the low base in 2025 led by robust IB fees and strong bancassurance as the bank begin to offer its own insurance products.
Interested in TCB? Click here to read more of our previous analysis on TCB’s quarterly earnings.
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