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Sabeco (SAB VN) – FY 2025 Earnings – Beer Sales Weaken, 2026 Recovery Ahead
Summary of FY 2025 results and outlook of Sabeco JSC (SAB VN)
- Beer revenue declined est. 13.2% y/y, mainly due a decline in volume to 1,251 million litres (-15.0% y/y). The softer volume reflects impacts from Decree 70/2025, which shifted small traditional retailers, Sabeco’s main sales channel (65% of total volume), to the new revenue-based taxation mechanism with stricter reporting and tax-code requirements. The transition has led retailers and distributors to reduce stocking levels and prioritize inventory clearance. SAB deployed support teams to assist channel partners in complying with the new regulations, and most of them are now fully aligned.
- Net profit slightly increased by 2.2% to VND4,424bn. Operating profit declined 3.2% y/y due to lower sales while SG&A costs increased mildly. Net financial and other income rose by 12.2% y/y as the consolidation of Sabibeco (SBB), which made loss previously, helped to lift the income from associates and SAB recorded one-off gains from asset revaluation as the result of the transaction.
- Vietnam’s beer market is projected to grow at around 4.4% CAGR over the next five years. While 2025 was a challenging year, with industry volume declining to approximately 3.5bn litres, the weakness largely reflected temporary regulatory disruptions rather than structural demand deterioration. As distributors adjust to the new framework, 2026 is expected to mark a normalization year, supported by continued income growth, particularly beyond major cities.
- The phased excise tax is estimated to raise the retail selling price by 3% per annum from 2027 to 2030. However, previous studies suggested that beer demand is relatively inelastic, so tax-driven price hike tend to moderate growth rather than trigger contraction.
- Looking ahead to 2026, we forecast net revenue to be driven by a 7.0% recovery in beer volume as traditional trade normalizes and restocking stabilizes following the 2025 regulatory transition. Rising incomes in rural and semi-urban areas, where SAB maintains strong distribution advantages, will support economy and mainstream demand, while continued recovery in international tourism provides incremental upside to on-trade consumption.
- We expect gross margin to narrow due to higher aluminum prices. SG&A over sales ratio is likely to stay flat. Net financial income is projected to rise, driven by higher cash balances and higher deposit rates. Overall, we estimate 2026 net profit to increase year-over-year.
Read our previous analysis on SAB’s quarterly earnings.
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Photo image credit: https://www.sabeco.com.vn/
