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Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS VN) – 9M 2025 – Beverage Growth Offsets Sugar Weakness
Summary of 9M 2025 results and outlook of Quang Ngai Sugar JSC (QNS VN)
- Net revenue declined slightly 2.0% y/y to VND7,910bn, as weaker sugar performance offset growth in plant-based beverage. Plant-based beverage sales (45.5% of total sales, ~95% from soymilk) grew 12.8% y/y, led by higher volume (+4.2% y/y) and the remaining increase came from changes in promotional goods accounting. QNS maintained growth via strong distributor engagement and promotional incentives amid high competition from both local (Vinamilk, TH True Milk) and global brands. Sugar sales (33.3% of total) fell 18.3% y/y, with lower volume (131,714 tons, -11.8%) and selling prices (-7.4%). Key reasons are: (1) RS & RE sugar sales temporarily declined from rising duty-free High-Fructose Corn Syrup imports (HFCS), (2) with new stricter regulations, small retailers/distributors must shift from fixed to revenue-based taxation and reporting requirements temporarily delayed in new purchases to clear inventories.
- Net profit declined 24.9% y/y to VND1,319bn, mainly due to a lower blended gross margin from weaker sugar performance and a 37.3% y/y increase in SG&A costs to VND1,253bn. The rise in SG&A was attributed to higher consumer promotions amid intensified competition, distributor support during the transition to new regulations on tax codes, and reporting standards, as well as new cereal launches, the relaunch plant-based drinks of Green Soy and Veyo, and expansion in modern trade channels.
- Outlook: For sugar sector, the anti-dumping review on imported sugar is expected to extend tariffs beyond Q2/2026. Additionally, Vietnam Sugarcane and Sugar Association proposed the government for HFCS taxation given health concerns, citing global precedents. Stronger government anti-smuggling and traceability measures will stabilize the market and protect local producers. Domestic cultivation growth will lift sugar self-sufficiency from 50.1% in 2025 to around 62.4% by 2030, securing QNS’s sugar sales growth. Meanwhile, local plant-based beverage market is expected to grow at a 7.0% CAGR in 2025–2030.
- For Q4/2025, plant-based beverage sales are forecast to rise, while sugar sales are set to recover as distributors resume purchases, with RE sugar contracted to major wholesalers delivered. About 50,300-ton output is expected to be absorbed in Q4 (above the quarterly average in the first 9M). Despite higher sales, Q4 net profit is forecast to decline year-over-year from lower sugar margins and higher selling costs.
Interested in QNS? Click here to read more of our previous analysis on QNS’s quarterly earnings.
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