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Hoa Phat Group (HPG VN) – 9M 2025 Earnings – Powerful Volume Growth and Strong Profit Recovery
Summary of 9M 2025 results and outlook of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG VN)
- Vietnam’s steel producers delivered robust volume growth as strong domestic demand offset export challenges amid escalating global protectionism. Total steel sales increased 9.2% y/y to 21.6mn tons, driven by a 30.5% y/y surge in domestic consumption supported by accelerating public investment, a new wave of residential projects as the real estate market regains momentum, and rising investment in new industrial parks. In contrast, exports fell 41.4% y/y due to heightened trade barriers and new tariffs. Following the official enforcement of anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese HRC imports, which saw inflows fall more sharply in Q3, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) recently initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on related products, a move expected to further safeguard domestic production.
- HPG’s net revenue rose 5.3% y/y in 9M/2025, as robust sales volume growth was partly offset by softer selling prices. The steel segment, accounting for 93.6% of total sales, recorded a 20.6% y/y increase in volume to 8.4mn tons. Growth was driven by a 51.4% y/y surge in HRC sales, supported by continued ramp-up of the first blast furnace at the Dung Quat Steel Complex Phase 2 (DQSC2), while output benefited from anti-dumping protection. Other key products, including construction steel and steel pipes, also maintained solid volume growth. Gross profit margin improved to 16.5%, from 13.5% in 9M/2024, supported by a sharp decline in input costs relative to selling prices. Meanwhile, net financial expenses rose 33.1% y/y, primarily due to higher FX losses, as lower export revenues reduced foreign-currency inflows for offsetting import exposure. Overall, net profit surged by 26.2% y/y to VND11.6tn.
- IPO plan for HPG Agriculture (HPA). In September 2025, HPG announced its plan to list its agriculture subsidiary, offering a 10.5% stake post-listing to raise fund for HPA’s business expansion in the farm segment, post IPO HPG will retain an 85.0% stake. In 9M/2025, HPA contributed 5.7% of HPG’s revenue and 11.2% of net profit.
- For Q4/2025, we project continued strong volume growth driven by the ramp-up of new capacity. Sales volume is expected to surge 49.5% y/y to 3.5mn tons, while profit margin remain stable. 2025 net profit is forecasted at VND17.3tn (+43.9% y/y).
- For 2026, we project net profit to increase 46.9% y/y to VND25.4tn. Domestic consumption is expected to remain resilient, supported by strong infrastructure spending and real estate activity. China’s administrative measures to curb excess capacity and reduce environmental impact should help stabilize global oversupply pressure. For HPG, the ramp-up of newly added capacity is expected to drive further HRC sales growth, while construction steel demand remains firm. Profit margins are projected to improve slightly, reflecting the full-year impact of anti-dumping protection.
Read our previous analysis on HPG’s quarterly earnings.
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Featured image credit: https://www.hoaphat.com.vn/
