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Company Quarterly Earnings Update – NLG VN – Q4/2024
Summary of Q4/2024 results and outlook of Nam Long Investment (NLG VN)
- The implementation of three real estate laws has spurred new supply growth, yet the majority remain concentrated in the high-end segment, diverging from prevailing demand for mid-end housing. This mismatch has fueled primary price increases in Hanoi and HCMC while keeping transaction volumes subdued. Looking ahead, the sustained impact of these regulatory changes, coupled with accelerating infrastructure investment in metro lines and TOD initiatives, is expected to drive supply expansion beyond central areas and broaden access to affordable housing.
- NLG capitalized on the persistent shortage of affordable and mid-end housing, achieving robust presales of VND5,204bn in 2024 (+32.7% y/y) from 1,786 units, mostly affordable and mid-end apartments.
- Net revenue surged to VND7,196bn (+126.2% y/y), fueled by the handover of over 2,000 units from Akari, Southgate and Can Tho projects. However, Mizuki Park delivered only 204 units in 2024 vs. 1017 units in 2023, leading to a 76.2% y/y decline in joint-venture profits to around VND100 bn. All in all, net profit rose 5.9% y/y to VND512bn.
- Enhanced infrastructure linking HCMC to Long An, Dong Nai, and Can Tho, alongside new legal frameworks easing bottlenecks, positions NLG to accelerate its affordable and mid-end pipeline.
- We anticipate NLG will maintain robust presales in 2025, led by the Q3/2025 launch of Mizuki Park Phase 3, a mid-end apartment project in HCMC tapping strong demand. Further momentum will come from Southgate’s next low-rise phase in Long An and ongoing Can Tho sales. NLG’s 15% Izumi City stake divestment in 2025, yielding ~VND300bn pre-tax profit, lower project profitability but boost cash flow for expanding its land bank in Dong Nai and Can Tho.
- For 2025, revenue is projected to fall due to fewer deliveries across Akari City Phase 2, Mizuki Park Phase 2, Southgate, Can Tho, and Izumi City, though net profit should rise, aided by the Izumi divestment. In 2026, revenue and net profit is expected to be driven by about 1,700-unit handovers, primarily from Southgate low-rise units and Mizuki Park Phase 3’s ramp-up post-launch.
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